Interest Rate Probabilities
These interest rate probabilities are the market's prediction of what the FED will target for interest rantes in their meetings. The probabilities adjust as economic indicators change and FED members provide insights. Predictions for the FED meetings closer to present tend to be accurate.
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
225-250
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
-
-
91.9%
8.1%
12/10/25
-
-
-
-
-
78.8%
20.0%
1.2%
1/28/26
-
-
-
-
34.9%
52.8%
11.7%
0.6%
3/18/26
-
-
-
18.5%
44.4%
31.0%
5.8%
0.3%
4/29/26
-
-
5.4%
26.0%
40.5%
23.7%
4.2%
0.2%
6/17/26
-
3.2%
17.8%
34.7%
30.4%
12.0%
1.8%
0.1%
7/29/26
1.0%
7.6%
22.8%
33.4%
24.9%
9.0%
1.3%
0.1%
9/16/26
3.3%
12.9%
26.5%
30.5%
19.3%
6.3%
0.9%
-
10/28/26
4.4%
14.5%
27.0%
29.1%
17.8%
5.6%
0.8%
-
Sept. 19, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
9/17/25
-
-
-
-
-
5.5%
94.5%
-
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
4.7%
81.6%
13.7%
-
12/10/25
-
-
-
4.3%
74.8%
19.8%
1.2%
-
1/28/26
-
-
2.2%
40.2%
46.7%
10.3%
0.6%
-
3/18/26
-
1.2%
22.3%
43.7%
27.4%
5.2%
0.3%
-
4/29/26
0.3%
6.9%
28.1%
39.3%
21.4%
3.8%
0.2%
-
6/17/26
4.1%
19.2%
34.6%
28.9%
11.2%
1.7%
0.1%
-
7/29/26
8.3%
23.5%
33.0%
24.0%
8.6%
1.3%
0.1%
-
9/16/26
13.9%
27.0%
29.7%
18.3%
5.9%
0.8%
-
-
Sept. 12, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
9/17/25
-
-
-
-
-
8.2%
91.8%
-
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
6.1%
70.8%
23.1%
-
12/10/25
-
-
-
5.3%
62.5%
29.2%
2.9%
-
1/28/26
-
-
2.6%
33.2%
46.3%
16.4%
1.5%
-
3/8/26
-
1.5%
20.0%
40.7%
29.3%
7.9%
0.6%
-
4/29/26
0.5%
7.6%
26.85
36.9%
22.2%
5.5%
0.4%
-
6/17/26
5.0%
19.9%
33.3%
27.5%
11.5%
2.3%
0.2%
-
7/29/26
10.0%
24.3%
31.4%
22.2%
8.5%
1.6%
0.1%
-
9/16/26
15.8%
27.2%
27.7%
16.7%
5.7%
1.0%
0.1%
-
Sept. 5, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
9/17/25
-
-
-
-
-
-
87.1%
12.9%
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
-
46.5%
47.4%
6.0%
12/10/25
-
-
-
-
38.8%
47.3%
13.0%
1.0%
1/28/26
-
-
-
18.9%
42.9%
30.6%
7.1%
0.5
3/18/26
-
-
10.7%
32.5%
35.9%
17.3%
3.4%
0.2%
4/29/26
-
4.2%
19.3%
33.8%
28.6%
11.8%
2.1%
0.1%
6/17/26
2.8%
14.1%
28.8%
30.4%
17.6%
5.5%
0.8%
-
7/29/26
6.9%
19.5%
29.4%
25.7%
13.2%
3.8%
0.5%
-
9/16/26
12.3%
23.7%
27.8%
20.3%
9.1%
2.4%
0.3%
-
Aug. 29, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
9/17/25
-
-
-
-
-
-
86.2%
13.8%
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
-
44.2%
49.1%
6.7%
12/10/25
-
-
-
-
35.1%
48.1%
15.5%
1.4%
1/28/26
-
-
-
17.1%
41.4%
32.2%
8.6%
0.7%
3/18/26
-
-
9.4%
30.4%
36.3%
19.3%
4.3%
0.3%
4/29/26
-
3.1%
16.3%
32.4%
30.7%
14.3%
3.0%
0.2%
6/17/26
1.8%
10.8%
25.6%
31.4%
21.2%
7.8%
1.4%
0.1%
7/29/26
4.9%
15.8%
27.6%
27.9%
16.6%
5.6%
0.9%
0.1%
9/16/26
9.3%
20.5%
27.7%
23.4%
12.2%
3.7%
0.6%
-
Aug. 22, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
9/17/25
-
-
-
-
-
-
84.6%
15.4%
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
-
51.5%
42.4%
6.0%
12/10/25
-
-
-
-
38.6%
44.7%
15.2%
1.5%
1/28/26
-
-
-
16.2%
41.2%
32.3%
9.4%
0.9%
3/18/26
-
-
8.0%
28.5%
36.8%
21.1%
5.2%
0.4%
4/29/26
-
2.2%
13.7%
30.8%
32.4%
16.6%
3.9%
0.3%
6/17/26
1.3%
8.8%
23.5%
31.7%
23.4%
9.4%
1.9%
0.1%
7/29/26
3.6%
13.3%
26.0%
29.2%
19.1%
7.0%
1.3%
0.1%
9/16/26
7.3%
18.2%
27.2%
26.3%
14.5%
4.9%
0.9%
0.1%
Aug. 15, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
9/17/25
-
-
-
-
-
-
91.4%
8.6%
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
-
48.6%
38.3%
3.1%
12/10/25
-
-
-
-
46.7%
42.4%
10.2%
0.6%
1/28/26
-
-
-
20.7%
44.8%
28.2%
6.0%
0.4%
3/18/26
-
-
10.2%
32.5%
36.6%
17.3%
3.2%
0.2%
4/29/26
-
2.7%
16.2%
33.6%
31.4%
13.5%
2.4%
0.1%
6/17/26
1.5%
10.0%
25.6%
32.4%
21.7%
7.5%
1.2%
0.1%
7/29/26
4.0%
14.7%
27.7%
29.2%
17.5%
5.6%
0.8%
-
9/16/26
8.0%
19.5%
28.2%
24.9%
13.0%
3.8%
0.5%
-
Aug. 8, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
9/17/25
-
-
-
-
-
-
80.3%
19.7%
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
-
58.4%
36.2%
5.4%
12/10/25
-
-
-
-
46.4%
40.8%
11.7%
1.1%
1/28/26
-
-
-
21.6%
43.8%
27.3%
6.8%
0.6%
3/18/26
-
-
11.4%
33.3%
35.0%
16.4%
3.5%
0.3%
4/29/26
-
3.8%
18.7%
33.9%
28.9%
12.1%
2.4%
0.2%
6/17/26
2.2%
12.4%
27.5%
31.0%
19.2%
6.5%
1.1%
0.1%
7/29/26
5.7%
17.5%
28.7%
27.0%
14.9%
4.7%
0.8%
0.1%
9/16/26
10.2%
21.8%
28.0%
22.4%
11.0%
3.2%
0.5%
-
Aug. 1, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
7/30/25
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.1%
96.9%
9/27/25
-
-
-
-
-
1.7%
55.9%
42.3%
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
0.9%
28.4%
49.2%
21.5%
12/10/25
-
-
-
0.6%
19.2%
42.3%
30.8%
7.2%
1/28/26
-
-
0.2%
7.2%
27.4%
38.2%
22.4%
4.6%
3/18/26
-
0.1%
3.6%
17.1%
32.7%
30.5%
13.7%
2.4%
4/29/26
-
1.1%
7.4%
21.4%
32.1%
25.8%
10.5%
1.7%
6/17/26
0.6%
4.6%
15.2%
27.4%
28.6%
17.3%
5.6%
0.8%
7/29/26
2.0%
8.2%
19.4%
27.8%
24.7%
13.3%
3.9%
0.5%
July 25, 2025
Target Fed Rate Probabilities (%)
Date
250-275
275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
375-400
400-425
425-450
7/30/25
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.7%
95.3%
9/17/25
-
-
-
-
-
2.7%
57.9%
39.4%
10/29/25
-
-
-
-
1.4%
31.0%
48.4%
19.2%
12/10/25
-
-
-
0.9%
20.9%
42.4%
29.2%
6.6%
1/28/26
-
-
0.4%
9.8%
30.4%
36.6%
19.2%
3.7%
3/18/26
-
0.2%
5.7%
21.5%
33.9%
26.7%
10.4%
1.6%
4/29/26
0.1%
2.1%
11.0%
25.6%
31.5%
21.3%
7.4%
1.1%
6/17/26
1.2%
7.2%
19.4%
29.0%
25.6%
13.3%
3.8%
0.4%
7/29/26
2.6%
9.8%
21.0%
27.8%
23.0%
11.7%
3.3%
0.4%
July 18, 2025